To ensure effective implementation, FutureWater will maintain continuous engagement with ARA-Sul, providing technical support and collecting feedback through online sessions. This collaboration will help address challenges in system integration, troubleshoot issues, and refine functionalities. A significant component of this phase is the development of a comprehensive user manual and training materials, including PowerPoint slide decks, to guide ARA-Sul staff in effectively utilizing the tool for water licensing assessments. By embedding the tool within ARA-Sul’s operations, FutureWater aims to enhance decision-making capabilities and streamline the management of water resources in the region.
The Inter-Regional Technical Platform on Water Scarcity (iRTP-WS), led by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, seeks to bridge gaps in practice and innovation to drive transformative change in water, land, and agriculture management, particularly in the face of climate change. It focuses on enhancing system preparedness for water, food, and climate challenges through improved governance, capacity building, and e-learning.
For 2024-2025, the work plan centers on “Integrated Water Solutions: Navigating Climate Change and Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem (WEFE) Nexus Dynamics.” The FAO Regional Office for Asia-Pacific leads Strategic Priority 1: Nexus Thinking, promoting cross-sectoral, inclusive decision-making to optimize resource use and implement sustainable WEFE-based solutions.
To support nexus-based decision-making, FAO, in collaboration with FutureWater, is developing a tool that leverages Water Accounting data to provide accessible insights into WEFE dynamics. This tool will integrate WEAP and its API into an Excel environment, streamlining scenario analysis for both projections and interventions. By combining the strengths of both platforms, it will offer an intuitive, standardized, and collaborative approach to Water Accounting, contributing to a more harmonized decision-making framework.
A consortium of international development finance institutions led by World bank and including Asian Development Bank (ADB) have signaled their intention to support the financing of the Project. ADB is committed under Strategy 2030 operating priority 3 to support its Developing Member Countries to ensure a comprehensive approach to build climate and disaster resilience. The climate risk management approach of the ADB aims to reduce risks resulting from climate change to investment projects by identifying climate change risks to project performance in the early stages of project development, and which will support decision-making to incorporate the most appropriate adaptation measures in the design.
An initial climate risk assessment has been completed for the Rogun HPP project including assessments of natural hazards, hydrology, sedimentation, and the impact of climate change projections on project performance, however downstream resource implications have not been assessed. In this project FutureWater addresses wider system-level adaptation needs across the Amu Darya basin due to increased water use demand during the Rogun HPP reservoir filling period, climate-driven change to water supply and demand, and identification of potential supply-demand gaps. A combination of hydrological and water allocation modeling will form an evidence-base to inform recommended adaptive measures for the design and operation of Rogun HPP and for wider water-use sectors where required.
FutureWater undertakes analysis to understand projected climate change driven changes in water supply in Rogun HPP upstream areas, and water demands in downstream areas and the wider Amu Darya basin, with a focus on identifying the potential for a supply-demand gap throughout the Rogun HPP reservoir filling period to 2040. Where a risk of a supply-demand gap is identified FutureWater provides recommended measures that can increase water efficiency in the competing demand use sectors with the overall aim of meeting demand across the different scenarios and in compliance with cross-boundary resource sharing agreements.
Specifically, FutureWater addresses following topics:
- Model projected water supply and demand in the Amu Darya river basin by utilizing a WEAP model developed for water supply, demand and allocation analysis, and accounting for climate change, Rogun HPP reservoir filling schedule, changing hydrology patterns and changes to downstream water demand from irrigation and other relevant end-use demands, where relevant.
- Analyze the potential for water resource supply-demand gap to 2040 for a range of climate scenarios that capture potential future pathways aligned to government plans and policies and climate change, where relevant.
- Recommend required water efficiency measures, where a risk of a supply-demand gap is identified under the the limits set by the cross-border water resource sharing agreement, so as to mitgate the risk with high-level cost estimate where capital investment is required.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) launched the Asia-Pacific Water Scarcity Program (WSP) to help countries across the region address the increasing challenges of water scarcity. The program aims to promote sustainable water use and support economic productivity despite growing water constraints.
Mongolia’s inclusion in the WSP presents a valuable opportunity to strengthen its water management capabilities. By applying proven methodologies and resources, the program will enhance the capacity of Mongolia’s Water Resource Ministries and River Basin Organizations (RBOs) to tackle the country’s unique water challenges effectively.
To demonstrate the effectiveness of Water Accounting for improved water management under a changing climate, FutureWater, with FAO’s support, is conducting a Water Accounting assessment for Mongolia’s two key river basins—the Tuul and Orkhon. Using cutting-edge techniques and tools, this initiative will provide critical insights to support sustainable water allocation and long-term resilience.
The GEF / UNDP / ASEAN Project on Reducing Pollution and Preserving Environmental Flows in the East Asian Seas through the Implementation of Integrated River Basin Management (IRBM) in the ASEAN Countries is a 5-year project (2023-2027) with the goal of establishing functional IRBM mechanisms in seven priority river basins / sub-basins / watersheds in six ASEAN Member States, to reduce pollution, sustain freshwater environmental flows and adapt to climate change vulnerabilities. The Project is designed to improve governance and management arrangements in IRBM and accelerate the required changes in the six AMS in support of national priorities, objectives and commitments to global sustainable development targets using the Source to Sea (S2S) framework. The PEMSEA Resource Facility (PRF), which serves as the Project Implementing Partner, hosts the Regional Project Management Unit (RPMU). It works in collaboration with National and Local Government Partners and River Basin Organizations.
Component 1 of the Project focuses on the conduct of a baseline assessment of the S2S management continuum with a targeted outcome of improving understanding of governance, socioeconomic, ecological conditions, gaps and needs of priority river basins / sub-basins and coastal areas. This will be achieved through the establishment of the State of River Basin (SORB) reporting system to consolidate information coming from administrative, social, economic and environmental sectors. As an input to the SORB baseline reporting, it is required to complete a comprehensive assessment of competing uses and users of water as a consequence of existing and future water uses and their implications on the water / energy / food / ecosystem (WEFE) security nexus in the priority river basins.
FutureWater is providing this assessment of the WEFE security nexus through review of existing knowledge and literature, stakeholder consultations, as well as tailoring and applying its REWEFe toolkit for nexus analysis to seven river basins in six countries of Southeast Asia: Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Philippines and Viet Nam.
The UNDP is implementing the project “Conservation and sustainable management of lakes, wetlands, and riparian corridors as pillars of a resilient and land degradation-neutral Aral basin landscape supporting sustainable livelihoods” to enhance the resilience of the ecosystems and livelihoods in Lower Amudarya and Aral Sea Basin (LADAB) through land degradation neutrality (LDN) compatible integrated land-water management.
This assignment contributes to water allocation analysis and the development of water supply scenarios for irrigated agriculture and biodiversity conservation reports. The services consist in:
- Consulting with project experts, government agencies, local communities, and other relevant stakeholders
- Develop a hydro-economic water allocation model for the lower Amu Darya basin using WEAP
- Explore different scenarios for irrigated agriculture and biodiversity conservation, considering climate change, to strike a balance between sustainable agricultural practices and conservation of biodiversity and ecosystems and (iv) build capacity and support project experts and relevant stakeholders on water allocation analysis and modelling.
Most recent research has focused on identifying historical megadroughts based on paleo-records and understanding their climatic causes, or on the study of “modern” events and their impacts, generally in lowland and plain regions. However, high-mountain regions and snow-dependent catchments have been little studied, and little is known about the impact of megadroughts on the state and dynamics of the cryosphere in mountain water towers.
In general, catchments dependent on high mountain systems have an intrinsic capacity to buffer the lack of precipitation and excess evapotranspiration that depends on the water reserves stored in the cryosphere (snow, glaciers and permafrost). It is presumed that the this buffer capacity is limited until a tipping point is reached from which the impacts of water shortages and temperature extremes may be amplified and jeopardize the functioning of ecosystems and water resource systems.
Megawat has a double objective: 1) to address the knowledge gaps around the hydro-climatic causes of extreme droughts and their impact on the water balance of Europe’s mountain water towers, with special emphasis on the concurrence of compound events and cascading and multi-scale effects and 2) to develop and propose new adaptation strategies to cope with the duration, extent and severity of future megadroughts and their potential impacts on environmental and socio-economic assets.
For its implementation, MegaWat focuses on Europe’s high mountain regions and their dependent-catchments. MegaWat aims to develop three products:
- Product 1. A methodological framework for the identification and characterization of historical megadroughts during the instrumental period, and the assessment of the role of the cryosphere in supporting the landscape development of downstream areas, or in buffering climate change impacts. Product 1 relies on a combination of climate regionalization, surface energy balance modelling, hydrological simulation, and water evaluation and allocation analysis at the catchment level (figure below).
- Product 2. A high-resolution, open-access regionalized climate database.
- Product 3. A list of potential adaptation strategies useful for the prevention and mitigation of drought impacts, and the enhancement of the water security and resilience of high mountain regions and dependent catchments. These scenarios will be agreed with regional and local actors and stakeholders, and their effectiveness will be evaluated under extreme drought scenarios in three pilot regions in Europe. These pilot regions will be previously selected following criteria of representativeness, strategic importance and vulnerability to droughts.
FutureWater plays an important role in MegaWat by coordinating the Work Package which aims to develop and test simulation tools that help to adapt to megadroughts and support the decision making process. Two specific objectives are pursued in this Work Package: a) the development of a methodological prototype for quantifying impacts and identifying tipping points for water security in snow-dependent downstream catchments, and b) the generation and the integration of snow drought indicators in the FutureWater’s Drought Early Warning System called InfoSequia (figure below).
A one-pager can be downloaded here.
Acknowledgements
This project has received funding from the Water4All programme with co-funding from CDTI (Spanish Office for Science and Technology) and the EU’s Horizon Europe Framework Programme for Research and Innovation.
The WEAP model simulates water availability, supply, and demand on a small scale for over 40 irrigation, domestic, and industrial sites, running on a daily timestep to include detailed reservoir operations and water use abstractions. The updated WEAP model was co-designed together with ARA-Sul, the regional water authorities of southern Mozambique. Monthly meetings were held to support information sharing and co-ownership throughout the project.
The model will aid ARA-Sul in water accounting and the licensing of water users served by the Pequenos Libombos Reservoir. The Pequenos Libombos Reservoir, with a storage capacity of 350 MCM, is the main water supplier to the Maputo Metropolitan Area inhabited by over 3 million people. In June 2024 sessions were held in The Netherlands were ARA-Sul was trained in the usage of the model.
The cover picture was taken by David Mucambe (ARA-Sul).
The aim is to develop a business case for a Watershed Investment Program for Addis Ababa. It includes stakeholder and governance analysis, scientific modeling, return on investment (ROI) analysis, and an implementation plan. Hydrological models are employed to assess the potential of Nature-based Solutions to mitigate the negative trends in the watershed, and improve water supply reliability, water quality, sedimentation and agricultural productivity. The study should raise awareness for all key stakeholders and potential investors. The study is performed under the Nature for Water Facility launched by The Nature Conservancy.
Urban flood management in Laos is typically based on a limited, hard infrastructure approach. With the aim to shift this paradigm towards an integrated approach that enhances climate resilience, the project “Building resilience of urban populations with ecosystem-based solutions in Lao PDR” was approved by the Green Climate Fund Board in November 2019 with a GCF grant of US$10 million. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) serves as the Accredited Entity for the project. Activities are executed by the State of Lao PDR through the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) as well as UNEP. The project is implemented across five years (2020-2025) covering four provincial capitals in the country: Vientiane, Paksan, Savannakhet, and Pakse.
One component of the project involves technical and institutional capacity building to plan, design, implement and maintain integrated urban Ecosystems-based Adaptation (EbA) interventions for the reduction of climate change induced flooding. As a part of Integrated Climate-resilient Flood Management Strategy (ICFMS) development, the project conducts hydrological, hydraulic and climate risk assessments to inform climate change adaptation solutions for risk reduction in Vientiane, Paksan, Savannakhet and Pakse.
A consortium of FutureWater, Mekong Modelling Associates (MMA) and Lao Consulting Group (LCG) was contracted by MONRE to implement the related activities. FutureWater leads and coordinates this assignment and contributes remote sensing analyses with state-of-the-art innovative tools, climate risk assessments, and training activities. To ensure sustainability and effective technology transfer, the modelling and mapping infrastructure and trained staff will be hosted within MONRE and a knowledge hub that is established within the National University of Laos.
