The approach of FutureWater and Galayr is designed to be both scientifically rigorous and contextually grounded, ensuring that the developed drought model is locally relevant, sustainable, and fully integrated into existing national systems such as those of SODMA and NADFOR. The model will merge top-down (data-driven, machine learning-enabled) and bottom-up (stakeholder-informed) approaches, combining satellite data, climate indices, and indigenous knowledge to co-develop impact-based forecasts and consensus-based triggers for anticipatory action.

For the development of the drought forecasting model and the knowledge transfer we will focus on the following pillars:

  • A phased work plan that spans institutional capacity assessments, model development, validation, stakeholder consultations, and hands-on capacity building.
  • Application of state-of-the-art forecasting models ranging from ARIMA and regression to more advanced machine learning techniques, while maintaining focus on usability and institutional adoption.
  • A strong emphasis on knowledge transfer, including training programs and the establishment of a collaborative knowledge-sharing platform using the FutureWater Academy platform
  • A robust risk management plan, including mitigation strategies for data scarcity, stakeholder disengagement, and institutional turnover.

 

The TU Delft and TAHMO (Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory) have launched a project with the Netherlands Embassy in Ghana to improve local weather data, help Ghanaian farmers get actionable information from it and with it foster a climate-smart horticultural sector in Ghana. At FutureWater, we support the project by researching optimal planting dates for horticultural crops that are commonly grown in Ghana, such as tomato, eggplants, and onions. The end goal is to supply farmers and extension officers with location-specific information on optimal planting dates for different horticultural crops.

Our methodology is inspired by earlier work led by TU Delft.  The FAO AquaCrop model is used simulate crop growth and yields under different possible planting dates based on data of the local climate and local soil conditions, considering the spatial variability across the country. Different planting strategies are analyzed, to assess the effectiveness of both traditional and weather-data informed planting strategies. FutureWater uses the open-source Python version of AquaCrop, developed by Manchester University.

This project will not just explore new ground on sowing windows in Ghana, but it will also provide actionable information for Ghanaian farmers and help them better prepare for an already changing climate.

 

We are refining the tool WE-HARP: WEAP-based Hydrological Assessment for water Resource Permitting, which connects the permitting database with an interface for the assessment of new surface water licenses.

To ensure effective implementation of the new tool, FutureWater will maintain continuous engagement with ARA-Sul, providing technical support and collecting feedback through online sessions. This collaboration will help address challenges in system integration, troubleshoot issues, and refine functionalities. A significant component of this phase is the development of a comprehensive user manual and training materials, including PowerPoint slide decks, to guide ARA-Sul staff in effectively utilizing the tool for water licensing assessments. By embedding the tool within ARA-Sul’s operations, FutureWater aims to enhance decision-making capabilities and streamline the management of water resources in the region.

The Inter-Regional Technical Platform on Water Scarcity (iRTP-WS), led by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, seeks to bridge gaps in practice and innovation to drive transformative change in water, land, and agriculture management, particularly in the face of climate change. It focuses on enhancing system preparedness for water, food, and climate challenges through improved governance, capacity building, and e-learning.
For 2024-2025, the work plan centers on “Integrated Water Solutions: Navigating Climate Change and Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem (WEFE) Nexus Dynamics.” The FAO Regional Office for Asia-Pacific leads Strategic Priority 1: Nexus Thinking, promoting cross-sectoral, inclusive decision-making to optimize resource use and implement sustainable WEFE-based solutions.

To support nexus-based decision-making, FAO, in collaboration with FutureWater, is developing a tool that leverages Water Accounting data to provide accessible insights into WEFE dynamics. This tool will integrate WEAP and its API into an Excel environment, streamlining scenario analysis for both projections and interventions. By combining the strengths of both platforms, it will offer an intuitive, standardized, and collaborative approach to Water Accounting, contributing to a more harmonized decision-making framework.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) launched the Asia-Pacific Water Scarcity Program (WSP) to help countries across the region address the increasing challenges of water scarcity. The program aims to promote sustainable water use and support economic productivity despite growing water constraints.

Mongolia’s inclusion in the WSP presents a valuable opportunity to strengthen its water management capabilities. By applying proven methodologies and resources, the program will enhance the capacity of Mongolia’s Water Resource Ministries and River Basin Organizations (RBOs) to tackle the country’s unique water challenges effectively.

To demonstrate the effectiveness of Water Accounting for improved water management under a changing climate, FutureWater, with FAO’s support, is conducting a Water Accounting assessment for Mongolia’s two key river basins—the Tuul and Orkhon. Using cutting-edge techniques and tools, this initiative will provide critical insights to support sustainable water allocation and long-term resilience.

The BUCRA (Building Unity for Climate Resilient Agriculture) project focuses on enhancing agricultural resilience in Qahbunah, a farming community in Egypt’s Nile Delta. Facing challenges like water scarcity, climate change, and land fragmentation, local farmers require innovative approaches to sustain their livelihoods.

At the heart of BUCRA are two cutting-edge tools developed by FutureWater: Croptimal and SOSIA, which combine advanced technology with local insights to transform traditional farming practices.

Croptimal is a climate suitability analysis tool that leverages climate projections, geospatial data, and agricultural insights to assess the suitability of various crops under current and future climate scenarios. By identifying areas and crops that are most resilient to climate stressors like heat, salinity, and water scarcity, Croptimal empowers farmers with data-driven recommendations to optimize their crop choices and planting strategies. This tool provides highly detailed maps and actionable advice, enabling farmers to adapt their practices to the challenges of climate change while enhancing productivity.

SOSIA (Satellite-based Open-source Irrigation Advisory) is an irrigation management tool designed to improve water use efficiency. It uses open-source satellite data, real-time weather information, and local soil conditions to provide precise daily irrigation advice. Farmers receive recommendations on how long to irrigate their crops each day via WhatsApp, making the service both accessible and cost-effective. This innovative approach not only reduces water usage but also improves crop yields and energy efficiency, addressing the increasing pressures on water resources in the Nile Delta.

In addition to these tools, BUCRA includes demonstration plots showcasing climate-smart techniques such as efficient irrigation, soil management, and crop rotation. Farmers will also participate in a blended learning program that combines field-based training with easy-to-use digital applications to improve their technical skills and knowledge.
BUCRA emphasizes empowering youth and women in agriculture, strengthening market linkages, and promoting sustainable land-use practices. By aligning Dutch expertise with local needs, the project aims to boost productivity, stabilize incomes, and build a sustainable agricultural future in Qahbunah.

The long-term vision is to inspire broader adoption of these tools and practices, ensuring food and water security in the region while addressing the challenges posed by climate change.

To help transition from reactive to proactive drought management, and in the absence of a cross-sectoral coordinating mechanism around drought investment prioritization, the World Bank has put together a process for developing a Drought Risk and Resilience Assessment (DRRA). The DRRA methodology includes reference to Nature-based Solutions (NBS) as an option to make countries more resilient to droughts. However, how these types of interventions can increase efficiency of World Bank projects, how they can be identified, how impacts can be assessed, and which challenges need to be addressed to implement NBS is not yet addressed sufficiently. This knowledge gap will be addressed by (i) Development of factsheets of existing NBS interventions to reduce drought risks for water services for drink water supply, for agriculture, for energy or other economic sectors that depend on water, and (ii) Developing an inventory of existing tools to identify effective NBS for drought resilience and assess their potential impact.

The WEAP model simulates water availability, supply, and demand on a small scale for over 40 irrigation, domestic, and industrial sites, running on a daily timestep to include detailed reservoir operations and water use abstractions. The updated WEAP model was co-designed together with ARA-Sul, the regional water authorities of southern Mozambique. Monthly meetings were held to support information sharing and co-ownership throughout the project.

The model will aid ARA-Sul in water accounting and the licensing of water users served by the Pequenos Libombos Reservoir. The Pequenos Libombos Reservoir, with a storage capacity of 350 MCM, is the main water supplier to the Maputo Metropolitan Area inhabited by over 3 million people. In June 2024 sessions were held in The Netherlands were ARA-Sul was trained in the usage of the model.

The cover picture was taken by David Mucambe (ARA-Sul).

The project prepares robust climate mitigation and adaptation pipelines aligned with the Paris Agreement and responsive to DMCs climate change priorities. The TA will support interventions on departmental, sectoral and country levels with key activities including development of a regional strategy, upstream climate assessments, climate pipeline development, government dialogues and capacity building. As part of this project, FutureWater conducts a regional climate risk assessment for ten countries. This includes an assessment of baseline and future climate hazards, exposure and vulnerability and addressing sectoral impacts and adaptation options for a wide range of sectors. In addition country profiles summarizing climate risks for the ten countries are generated. The reginal climate risk assessment feeds into the climate strategy.

FutureWater will develop a high-level climate change and adaptation assessment for Turkmenistan to strengthen the water and agriculture sector’s resilience against climate change. The work involves a detailed hazard mapping exercise, employing observational and satellite-based information, to identify climate-related risks such as droughts, water scarcity, heat, salinity, erosion, and floods. These mapped hazards will be synthesized at the administrative level, presenting a comprehensive visual representation through figures and tables.

Key exposure and vulnerability datasets will be mapped, and pertinent sources for subsequent collection and analysis will be identified, setting the stage for a detailed risk assessment beyond the scope of work. The key output of this effort is the assembly of an inventory of climate adaptation measures gleaned from existing reports and official documents, contextualized to Turkmenistan’s unique circumstances, and an initial gap and opportunity assessment based on this inventory.

Based on the assessment, the adaptation options will be categorized and an initial prioritization will take place based on each option’s potential to mitigate risks across various hazards, its capacity for impactful outcomes beyond local scales, and a relative indication of expected cost-effectiveness. The outcome should provide a foundation for an integrated climate adaptation project. Concurrently, FutureWater will engage in country consultations, collaborating with stakeholders to confirm or refine identified adaptation options. These consultations will also explore potential synergies with ongoing and planned projects initiated by both the government and development partners.