This project aims to strengthen drought preparedness and response in Somalia and Somaliland by enhancing the technical and operational capacities of the Somali Disaster Management Agency (SODMA) and Somaliland’s National Disaster Preparedness and Food Reserve Authority (NADFOR). Led by the World Food Programme (WFP), FutureWater and Galayr will work on assessing existing capabilities, developing robust drought forecasting models, establishing consensus on early action triggers, and ensuring long-term sustainability through knowledge transfer and contingency planning. By integrating climate data with food security risk information and building local ownership, the project seeks to enable timely, impact-based responses to mitigate the humanitarian consequences of recurring droughts. Ultimately the outcomes of this project will support Anticipatory Action in the region.

The approach of FutureWater and Galayr is designed to be both scientifically rigorous and contextually grounded, ensuring that the developed drought model is locally relevant, sustainable, and fully integrated into existing national systems such as those of SODMA and NADFOR. The model will merge top-down (data-driven, machine learning-enabled) and bottom-up (stakeholder-informed) approaches, combining satellite data, climate indices, and indigenous knowledge to co-develop impact-based forecasts and consensus-based triggers for anticipatory action.

For the development of the drought forecasting model and the knowledge transfer we will focus on the following pillars:

  • A phased work plan that spans institutional capacity assessments, model development, validation, stakeholder consultations, and hands-on capacity building.
  • Application of state-of-the-art forecasting models ranging from ARIMA and regression to more advanced machine learning techniques, while maintaining focus on usability and institutional adoption.
  • A strong emphasis on knowledge transfer, including training programs and the establishment of a collaborative knowledge-sharing platform using the FutureWater Academy platform
  • A robust risk management plan, including mitigation strategies for data scarcity, stakeholder disengagement, and institutional turnover.