A consortium of international development finance institutions led by World bank and including Asian Development Bank (ADB) have signaled their intention to support the financing of the project. The climate risk management approach of the ADB aims to reduce risks resulting from climate change to investment projects by identifying climate change risks to project performance in the early stages of project development and incorporating adaptation measures in the design.

For this project FutureWater undertakes work to analyze climate change risk faced by Rogun HPP and the interaction between climate change, climate-responsive HPP operation, and downstream water resource demand as a 2nd phase following initial due diligence of ADB on available project documentation. The detailed tasks entail:

  • Analyze downscaled CMIP6 General Circulation Model (GCM) to understand projected changes in precipitation and heat trends across climate change scenarios in the Rogun dam catchment area. This includes assessment of indicators for likelihood of heatwave and extreme precipitation events.
  • Undertake an estimate of the Probable Maximum Flood level in the Rogun dam catchment through event-based simulation modelling factoring in changes to projections for extreme precipitation events and changing hydrological processes due to climate change.
  • Estimate the likelihood of annual discharge change based on climate change projections to understand the likelihood of Rogun HPP project economics being negatively affected by declining capacity factor driven by climate change impacts on hydrology.
  • Conduct a first order analysis of present and future glacial lake outburst flood risk based on review of studies from reputable sources.

With the results of this analysis, ADB can update earlier climate risk studies and guide investment decisions.

 

With the highest rate of urbanization in South Asia and as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, Pakistan faces a range of complex challenges, including more frequent and intense flooding, declining economic productivity, and deteriorating public services. Growing dependence on groundwater, coupled with insufficient surface water recharge, is leading to severe localized groundwater depletion.

With support from the Asian Development Bank, the Government of Pakistan aims to upgrade and expand water and sanitation infrastructure in the cities of Sargodha and DG Khan, both of which face significant climate change-related challenges that impact combined drainage and sewer networks. The project has three major outputs:

  1. improving climate-resilient urban infrastructure and services,
  2. enhancing institutional capacity, operational efficiency, and gender inclusiveness of service providers, and
  3. creating greater economic empowerment opportunities for women in the WASH sector.

To assess the exposure and vulnerabilities of project components to potential climate risks, FutureWater will utilize advanced downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensembles, along with relevant hazard data and local information, to conduct a detailed Climate Risk Assessment (CRA). The insights gained will enable the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to implement effective adaptation measures and ensure climate-resilient development.

The Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Program is a partnership of 11 countries from Central Asia, South Asia, the Caucasus, as well as Mongolia and the People’s Republic of China and works to increase regional cooperation to help the region shift to low carbon development pathways and build resilience against climate induced hazards. ADB hosts the CAREC secretariat and helps to facilitate projects that deliver regional benefits.

In 2017, CAREC introduced agriculture and water as a new pillar under the CAREC 2030 strategy to provide a conducive and trusted platform to foster regional cooperation and integration on water security. The water pillar was established in 2020 and its scope was devised in 2022. Since then, a number of activities and consultations with CAREC countries have been undertaken including provision of a long list of potential regional projects that could be financed by ADB.

In this project prefeasibility studies will be conducted for three selected priority projects:

  1. Climate change adaptation through improving irrigation efficiency in the Aral Sea Basin
  2. Climate Resiliency of Bakhri Tojik reservoir for improved irrigation and energy supply
  3. Joint Automated Water Metering System in the Aral Sea Basin

The prefeasibility studies entail:

  • Technical, financial, economic, poverty and social analysis.
  • Environment, social, and indigenous people’s safeguards assessments.
  • Climate change assessments.
  • Financial management and procurement capacity assessments; and
  • Institutional set-up and project implementation arrangements.

For these prefeasibility studies FutureWater conducts the climate risk assessment.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is considering supporting the (re)construction of four wastewater treatment plants in Stepnogorsk, Satpaev, Zhezkazgan, and Balkhash. Detailed engineering designs are being prepared by designers recruited by Vodokanals. Climate change impacts may exacerbate environmental pollution and other adverse effects of aging infrastructure on service delivery. FutureWater conducted a Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) to ensure that climate impacts are fully considered in the detailed design and construction phases.

The CRA identified the main vulnerability components for the four proposed wastewater treatment plants as: (i) extreme precipitation leading to stormwater runoff, (ii) low flows causing water quality problems, (iii) flooding of infrastructure (both fluvial and pluvial), (iv) power supply outages, and (v) heat stress. FutureWater’s risk assessment, which considered the combined effects of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure, concluded that all five major identified risks require attention. Since the draft designs already account for the current extreme climate conditions, and due to relatively modest projected climate changes (temperature, precipitation, wind), the need for additional adaptation measures will be relatively modest.

FutureWater’s assessment contributed to ensuring that the four wastewater treatment plants will be climate-resilient, thereby securing the investment.

Golovnaya hydropower plant is located 80 kilometers south of Dushanbe and has an installed generation capacity of 240 MW, making it the fourth largest hydropower plant in Tajikistan, after Nurek (3,000 MW), Sangtuda 1 (670 MW), and Baipaza (600 MW). Construction began in 1956, with the first unit commissioned in 1962. Since then, except for one unit, the plant has not undergone significant modernization or improvements to maintain its original performance in terms of efficiency, reliability, safety, or to reduce operation and maintenance costs. Consequently, most of the main electro-mechanical and hydro-mechanical equipment is now in poor condition.

The current project, for which FutureWater conducted a climate risk assessment (CRA), aims to include the rehabilitation of generation Unit 4 of the hydropower plant, which was not part of the ongoing efforts. Unit 4 is expected to add approximately 49 MW to the overall plant capacity. The CRA report evaluated the climate risk and adaptation prospects of the additional project and provides recommendations to enhance its adaptability and climate resilience, further securing this investment.

FutureWater supported this project by conducting a comprehensive review of climate and climate change research, studies, reports, and data related to the Golovnaya hydropower plant. Key findings include: (i) the project should be analyzed within the context of the entire Vakhsh River basin and system; (ii) the operations of upstream reservoirs and hydropower facilities will have a greater impact on Golovnaya than climate change itself; (iii) climate change will affect upstream facilities and thereby indirectly impact Golovnaya. The overall conclusion was that for the specific project (rehabilitating hydropower turbines), the climate risk is relatively low.

FutureWater’s impact was contributing to ensuring that the Golovnaya rehabilitation project will be climate-resilient, thereby securing the investment.

The Lower Chao Phraya region of Thailand is facing increasingly frequent and severe flooding events, which pose significant threats to the livelihoods, safety, and economic stability of local communities. These floods have caused extensive property damage, crop loss, and displacement, thereby hindering overall development in the region. Contributing to these climate-induced flood vulnerabilities are the aging irrigation canal systems, which are inadequate for managing more intense floods, thus exacerbating water-related risks and long-term economic losses. This inefficiency constrains agricultural productivity, perpetuates poverty, and impedes sustainable development.

In response to these challenges, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) is advancing the Enhancing Climate Resilience and Adaptation of the Lower Eastern Chao Phraya Water System Project. The project aims to modernize the aging irrigation infrastructure—comprising canals, regulation gates, and pumping stations—by repurposing them into climate-resilient flood mitigation systems. This initiative seeks to improve water resource management, enhance climate adaptation, mitigate environmental degradation, and mobilize resources for sustainable development.

FutureWater has supported this project by conducting a comprehensive review of significant climate and climate change research, studies, reports, data, and information related to floods and droughts in Thailand from both governmental and non-governmental entities. This included analyzing the availability, quality, and accessibility of climate-related data collected across various regions in Thailand, and identifying data gaps. Additionally, FutureWater evaluated the methodologies, tools, and technologies used for climate data collection, analysis, and modeling to assess their reliability and effectiveness.

FutureWater’s contributions included: (i) identifying strengths and weaknesses in Thailand’s national and international climate commitments, (ii) highlighting the importance of distinguishing between pluvial and fluvial flooding, and (iii) assessing current and projected return periods for temperature, rainfall, and sea level rise. Recommendations were provided regarding the direction in which a comprehensive Climate Risk Assessment should be developed during the design phase of the project.

Uzbekistan is one of the fastest-growing economies in Central Asia, driving a steady rise in energy demand. However, the country faces significant power shortages due to increasing consumption, declining efficiency of aging power plants, and mounting climate pressures, particularly in regions like Tashkent, Samarkand, and Sirdarya. In response, Uzbekistan is prioritizing renewable energy development, especially solar power, to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels. With its abundant sunlight, the country is well-positioned to harness solar energy, and several large-scale photovoltaic (PV) projects are currently in progress.

With the support of the Asian Development Bank, Uzbekistan aims to strengthen energy security and promote environmental sustainability by developing three solar PV plants (100 MW, 400 MW, and 500 MW), two substations, two battery energy storage system (BESS) facilities, and associated transmission lines across Samarkand, Bukhara, Jizzakh, Sirdarya, and Tashkent provinces. To identify the exposures and vulnerabilities of these project components to potential climate risks, FutureWater will utilize advanced downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensembles, along with relevant hazard data and local information, to conduct a rapid Climate Risk Assessment (CRA). The insights gained will enable the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to implement effective adaptation measures and ensure climate-resilient development.

The Rogun HPP is a project that will have a large reservoir capable of providing seasonal regulation. It will supply firm energy during the winter months when demand for electricity is the highest in Tajikistan and will allow for exports of clean electricity to the Central Asia (CA) region and beyond. The Project could play the role of a balancing plant for Tajikistan and the broader Central Asia region to help integrate significant new solar PV and wind generation capacity into the network.

The Rogun HPP was initially designed in the 1970s as part of the development of the Vakhsh River cascade for integrated economic development in the Central Asian republics of the Soviet Union. Construction of Rogun HPP began in 1982 and was then interrupted by political changes resulting from the independence of Tajikistan and the other Central Asia countries. The World Bank in 2011 provided funding to the Government of Tajikistan to conduct a Technical and Economic Assessment Study and an Environmental and Social Impact Assessment. The Government of Tajikistan proceeded with construction without development partners’ involvement. In 2023 a technical assistance grant was approved by World Bank to improve the financial and commercial frameworks of the Rogun HPP Project and to enhance its technical, environmental and social sustainability.

ADB is committed under Strategy 2030 operating priority 3 to support its Developing Member Countries to ensure a comprehensive approach to build climate and disaster resilience. The climate risk management approach of the ADB aims to reduce risks resulting from climate change to investment projects by identifying climate change risks to project performance in the early stages of project development and incorporating adaptation measures in the design.

FutureWater will undertake a climate risk and vulnerability assessment for the Rogun HPP project. Technical studies assessing Rogun HPP’s exposure to natural hazards, hydrology, sedimentation, and
the impact of climate change projections have been completed. These findings are incorporated into the detailed technical design of the project. FutureWater will review all existing studies and any
related studies from reputable sources and consolidate the findings into a climate risk and vulnerability assessment (CRVA) for the project. FutureWater will ensure the methodological approach and technical rigor of the existing evidence base is sufficient, flagging potential insufficiencies which may have a material impact on the conclusions of the assessments. Related tasks to support due diligence will also include a Paris Alignment Assessment in accordance with ADB guidelines, a climate financing accounting estimate, a lifecycle greenhouse gas emission estimate, and Climate Change Assessment summarizing the CRVA findings.

Currently, Pakistan’s energy mix consists of 58.8% thermal, 25.8% hydel, 8.6% nuclear, and 6.8% alternative sources, reflecting efforts to diversify from fossil fuels. Pakistan’s installed electricity generation capacity reached 41,557 MW by 2022, with significant growth in transmission line length over the past 5 years. However, the T&D system has not kept pace with the nearly 15,000 MW capacity added during 2017-2021 (ADB, 2024). Despite investments, transmission and distribution losses averaged about 18% over the last 5 years, exceeding the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority’s (NEPRA) 15.3% target. In 2020, 23.7% of generated energy was lost during transmission, distribution, and delivery (ADB, 2024). Notably, transmission and distribution losses exceed 25%, far higher than in comparable countries (GoP, 2017). Therefore, there is an urgent need to upgrade the existing distribution infrastructure to fulfill the energy demands and ensure steady socioeconomic development in the country. ADB will provide financing for four underperforming DISCOs, selected in consultation with the Ministry of Energy: Sukkur Electric Power Company (SEPCO), Hyderabad Electric Supply Company (HESCO), the Multan Electric Power Company (MEPCO), and the Lahore Electric Supply Company (LESCO) to:

  1. to upgrade the critical infrastructure of these DISCOs to reduce technical losses.
  2. to implement revenue protection measures to improve collections. Additionally, the project design includes embedded climate resilience and reform measures to enhance institutional capacity and financial sustainability.

These rehabilitation efforts will also take into account and address the growing impacts of climate change in four DISCOs. FutureWater will make use of state-of-the-art downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensembles, and other relevant hazards and local information to develop this CRA. Insights from the CRA will be used to devise adaptation strategies. Additionally, FutureWater will be reviewing the existing meteorological monitoring network and recommending additional potential monitoring sites for improved surveillance in the country. To further assist the Government of Pakistan, in actualizing its second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) agenda which seeks to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit of GDP by 50% (compared to the level in 2016), by the year 2030, FutureWater will also develop a GHG account and prepare a Paris Agreement alignment assessment.

The project prepares robust climate mitigation and adaptation pipelines aligned with the Paris Agreement and responsive to DMCs climate change priorities. The TA will support interventions on departmental, sectoral and country levels with key activities including development of a regional strategy, upstream climate assessments, climate pipeline development, government dialogues and capacity building. As part of this project, FutureWater conducts a regional climate risk assessment for ten countries. This includes an assessment of baseline and future climate hazards, exposure and vulnerability and addressing sectoral impacts and adaptation options for a wide range of sectors. In addition country profiles summarizing climate risks for the ten countries are generated. The reginal climate risk assessment feeds into the climate strategy.