The approach of FutureWater and Galayr is designed to be both scientifically rigorous and contextually grounded, ensuring that the developed drought model is locally relevant, sustainable, and fully integrated into existing national systems such as those of SODMA and NADFOR. The model will merge top-down (data-driven, machine learning-enabled) and bottom-up (stakeholder-informed) approaches, combining satellite data, climate indices, and indigenous knowledge to co-develop impact-based forecasts and consensus-based triggers for anticipatory action.

For the development of the drought forecasting model and the knowledge transfer we will focus on the following pillars:

  • A phased work plan that spans institutional capacity assessments, model development, validation, stakeholder consultations, and hands-on capacity building.
  • Application of state-of-the-art forecasting models ranging from ARIMA and regression to more advanced machine learning techniques, while maintaining focus on usability and institutional adoption.
  • A strong emphasis on knowledge transfer, including training programs and the establishment of a collaborative knowledge-sharing platform using the FutureWater Academy platform
  • A robust risk management plan, including mitigation strategies for data scarcity, stakeholder disengagement, and institutional turnover.

 

The TU Delft and TAHMO (Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory) have launched a project with the Netherlands Embassy in Ghana to improve local weather data, help Ghanaian farmers get actionable information from it and with it foster a climate-smart horticultural sector in Ghana.

At FutureWater, we support the project by researching optimal planting dates for different crops that are commonly grown in Ghana, such as tomato, eggplants, and onions. The end goal is to supply farmers and extension officers with location-specific information on optimal planting dates for different horticultural crops.

Our methodology is inspired by Agoungbome et al. (2024) and their analysis of safe sowing windows in West Africa. We will evaluate three different approaches to determining planting dates: a rainfall-based strategy requiring 20mm accumulation with no subsequent dry spells, an agronomic onset requiring consecutive rainy days, and a model-based safe sowing window identifying dates that yield at least 90% of maximum potential.

We will use the FAO AquaCrop model to simulate crop growth under different planting dates over the past 30 years. By simulating over more than a hundred different planting dates per year, we will be able to assess the effectiveness of both traditional and weather-data informed planting strategies. Moreover, we can assess how optimal planting dates have already shifted in the past 30 years due to climate change, and how droughts affect optimal planting strategies.

This will also be the first time that FutureWater will use the open-source Python version of AquaCrop, developed by our former colleague Tim Foster. It will be exciting to see the accuracy of the AquaCrop model merge with the power of the Python framework. Where possible, we will also research how the AquaCrop OSPy model could be extended with more features from the original AquaCrop model, such as fertility stress simulation.

This project will not just explore new ground on sowing windows in Ghana, but it will also provide actionable information for Ghanaian farmers and help them better prepare for an already changing climate.

Agoungbome, S. M. D., ten Veldhuis, M.-C., & van de Giesen, N. (2024). Safe Sowing Windows for Smallholder Farmers in West Africa in the Context of Climate Variability. Climate, 12(3), 44. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12030044

The WEFE NEXUS International Conference, themed “Exploring and Bridging Nexus for a Sustainable Future,” was held on 11-12 February 2025 at the Institut Agronomique et Vétérinaire Hassan II in Rabat, Morocco. Jointly organized by the BONEX and SureNexus projects, both funded by PRIMA, this important event convened a diverse group of researchers, policymakers, entrepreneurs, and practitioners from across the globe to tackle the growing challenges and opportunities presented by the Water-Energy-Food-Environment (WEFE) Nexus.

The WEFE NEXUS International Conference, themed “Exploring and Bridging Nexus for a Sustainable Future,” was held on 11-12 February 2025 at the Institut Agronomique et Vétérinaire Hassan II in Rabat, Morocco. Jointly organized by the BONEX and SureNexus projects, both funded by PRIMA, this important event convened a diverse group of researchers, policymakers, entrepreneurs, and practitioners from across the globe to tackle the growing challenges and opportunities presented by the Water-Energy-Food-Environment (WEFE) Nexus.

Day 1 focused on governance and gender equity within the WEFE Nexus:

  • Governance & Policy Integration – Strategies to enhance resilience in resource management.
  • Gender & WEFE Nexus – Emphasizing gender inclusivity in sustainable development

Day 2 explored innovative solutions for implementing WEFE Nexus strategies:

  • Trade-off Analysis & Policy Integration – Lessons from multi-country case studies.
  • Decision-Support Systems – Smart governance for sustainable resource use.
  • WEFE 2.0 – Redefining sustainability through innovation.

On day 2, FutureWater (Johannes Hunink) presented the Rapid Evaluation for WEFe nexus analysis (REWEFe) tool, and its application several case studies of the BONEX project. The conference fostered collaboration amongst partners in the Mediterranean. Several concrete activities were discussed for Jordan, amongst others. The discussions initiated will continue shaping policies and projects beyond this event.

Presentation of ReWEFe
Panel Discussion

The international research project on Megadroughts in Europe’s Watertowers (project acronym MegaWat) officially launched with a kickoff meeting at the Institute of Science and Technology Austria (ISTA) the 4th and 5th September 2024.

The meeting brought together all project partners to discuss the research framework, methodologies, and collaborative goals. This project has received funding from the Water4All programme with co-funding from CDTI (Spanish Office for Science and Technology) and the EU’s Horizon Europe Framework Programme for Research and Innovation.

This ambitious project aims to advance the understanding of past and future megadroughts by integrating high-resolution climate reconstructions, tree-ring data, and hydroclimatic modeling. Researchers from Spain (FutureWater), Austria, Switzerland, Netherlands, and other countries, will work together to assess the frequency, drivers, and impacts of extreme drought events.

The kickoff meeting fostered interdisciplinary exchange, setting the foundation for effective collaboration over the coming years. With a strong focus on historical data and future projections, the project seeks to provide valuable insights for water resource management and climate resilience in a changing world.

Acknowledgements

This project has received funding from the Water4All programme with co-funding from CDTI (Spanish Office for Science and Technology) and the EU’s Horizon Europe Framework Programme for Research and Innovation.

Early July, an Asian Development Bank (ADB) delegation and FutureWater visited Ashgabat for meetings and consultations with specialists from Turkmenistan’s Ministries of Agriculture and Environmental Protection, as well as the State Committee of Water Resources. The goal was to establish scientific and practical cooperation for a new climate adaptation-focused project.

The proposed project focuses on greening agricultural production and environmental management. It will include:

•     Strengthening institutional and legislative processes
•     Measures to adapt to climate change
•     Mitigation strategies (reducing greenhouse gas emissions)
•     Digitalization in the water sector
•     Promotion of space technologies

FutureWater is mapping climate-related hazards and climate vulnerability factors, in order to select focus areas and priority actions.

Following consultations, a consolidated meeting defined the project’s preliminary content. This incorporates presentations by ADB representatives and proposals from Turkmen government officials regarding natural resource protection and use. The project structure will involve three parts: monitoring and modelling; implementation of activities; knowledge capacity building in modern practices.

ADB climate specialist Leo Kris Palao and consultant Johannes Hunink emphasized the importance of a practical and specific approach to maximize the partnership’s effectiveness. Turkmen representatives highlighted the ADB’s history of supporting domestic environmental management practices. They noted previous successful joint projects in nature conservation, food production, and agriculture.

More information about the project can be found here.

Specialists from Turkmenistan discuss identified climate risks and adaptation options with ADB experts and FutureWater (Johannes Hunink)

Most recent research has focused on identifying historical megadroughts based on paleo-records and understanding their climatic causes, or on the study of “modern” events and their impacts, generally in lowland and plain regions. However, high-mountain regions and snow-dependent catchments have been little studied, and little is known about the impact of megadroughts on the state and dynamics of the cryosphere in mountain water towers.

In general, catchments dependent on high mountain systems have an intrinsic capacity to buffer the lack of precipitation and excess evapotranspiration that depends on the water reserves stored in the cryosphere (snow, glaciers and permafrost). It is presumed that the this buffer capacity is limited until a tipping point is reached from which the impacts of water shortages and temperature extremes may be amplified and jeopardize the functioning of ecosystems and water resource systems.

Megawat has a double objective: 1) to address the knowledge gaps around the hydro-climatic causes of extreme droughts and their impact on the water balance of Europe’s mountain water towers, with special emphasis on the concurrence of compound events and cascading and multi-scale effects and 2) to develop and propose new adaptation strategies to cope with the duration, extent and severity of future megadroughts and their potential impacts on environmental and socio-economic assets.

For its implementation, MegaWat focuses on Europe’s high mountain regions and their dependent-catchments. MegaWat aims to develop three products:

  • Product 1. A methodological framework for the identification and characterization of historical megadroughts during the instrumental period, and the assessment of the role of the cryosphere in supporting the landscape development of downstream areas, or in buffering climate change impacts. Product 1 relies on a combination of climate regionalization, surface energy balance modelling, hydrological simulation, and water evaluation and allocation analysis at the catchment level (figure below).
  • Product 2. A high-resolution, open-access regionalized climate database.
  • Product 3. A list of potential adaptation strategies useful for the prevention and mitigation of drought impacts, and the enhancement of the water security and resilience of high mountain regions and dependent catchments. These scenarios will be agreed with regional and local actors and stakeholders, and their effectiveness will be evaluated under extreme drought scenarios in three pilot regions in Europe. These pilot regions will be previously selected following criteria of representativeness, strategic importance and vulnerability to droughts.

 

Schematic representation of a high mountain basin, including the main components, processes and impacts related to droughts.

FutureWater plays an important role in MegaWat by coordinating the Work Package which aims to develop and test simulation tools that help to adapt to megadroughts and support the decision making process. Two specific objectives are pursued in this Work Package: a) the development of a methodological prototype for quantifying impacts and identifying tipping points for water security in snow-dependent downstream catchments, and b) the generation and the integration of snow drought indicators in the FutureWater’s Drought Early Warning System called InfoSequia (figure below).

Workflow of the InfoSequia Early Warning System developed by FutureWater and adapted for the detection of tipping-points of water scarcity in snow-dependent catchments. More information about InfoSequia.

A one-pager can be downloaded here.

Acknowledgements

This project has received funding from the Water4All programme with co-funding from CDTI (Spanish Office for Science and Technology) and the EU’s Horizon Europe Framework Programme for Research and Innovation.

FutureWater and TERI (The Energy and Resources Institute) with support from Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) organised a Final Dissemination Workshop under the project for “Developing a Glacio-Hydrological Model and IWRM Plan for Bhagirathi Basin, Uttarakhand” at Dehradun today.

For the aspects of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) in Uttarakhand, the SCA-Himalayas project mandated a consortium of international and national level expert agencies led by FutureWater, together with Utrecht University, University of Geneva and TERI – The Energy and Resources Institute to develop a Glacio-Hydrological Model and IWRM Plan for Bhagirathi basin in Uttarakhand.

As part of the project, river runoff for Bhagirathi River has been projected upto year 2100 and different water availability scenarios have been developed. To address the challenges related to the water sector in the basin, an IWRM plan has been developed with the active engagement of all key stakeholders through meetings and consultations. Also, training programmes have been organized for the state officials on glacio-hydrolological and water allocation modelling.

The immersive training programme was conducted on the state-of-art Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) modelling by the international experts. All the trainees were awarded with a completion certificate the session.

This workshop and training programme were envisaged to present the final outputs under the initiative and discuss the ways towards effective implementation of IWRM plan in the Bhagirathi River basin.

The aim is to develop a business case for a Watershed Investment Program for Addis Ababa. It includes stakeholder and governance analysis, scientific modeling, return on investment (ROI) analysis, and an implementation plan. Hydrological models are employed to assess the potential of Nature-based Solutions to mitigate the negative trends in the watershed, and improve water supply reliability, water quality, sedimentation and agricultural productivity. The study should raise awareness for all key stakeholders and potential investors. The study is performed under the Nature for Water Facility launched by The Nature Conservancy.

FutureWater will develop a high-level climate change and adaptation assessment for Turkmenistan to strengthen the water and agriculture sector’s resilience against climate change. The work involves a detailed hazard mapping exercise, employing observational and satellite-based information, to identify climate-related risks such as droughts, water scarcity, heat, salinity, erosion, and floods. These mapped hazards will be synthesized at the administrative level, presenting a comprehensive visual representation through figures and tables.

Key exposure and vulnerability datasets will be mapped, and pertinent sources for subsequent collection and analysis will be identified, setting the stage for a detailed risk assessment beyond the scope of work. The key output of this effort is the assembly of an inventory of climate adaptation measures gleaned from existing reports and official documents, contextualized to Turkmenistan’s unique circumstances, and an initial gap and opportunity assessment based on this inventory.

Based on the assessment, the adaptation options will be categorized and an initial prioritization will take place based on each option’s potential to mitigate risks across various hazards, its capacity for impactful outcomes beyond local scales, and a relative indication of expected cost-effectiveness. The outcome should provide a foundation for an integrated climate adaptation project. Concurrently, FutureWater will engage in country consultations, collaborating with stakeholders to confirm or refine identified adaptation options. These consultations will also explore potential synergies with ongoing and planned projects initiated by both the government and development partners.

Southern Spain is a highly productive agricultural region, but with huge challenges around water scarcity and environmental sustainability. There is a demand in the agricultural sector to work towards water stewardship in Spain. The Alliance for Water Stewardship has developed a Standard which helps retailers and their suppliers to cause change at scale. This approach recognizes that there are common challenges that could be more easily overcome through a collective, place-based approach.

In the Doñana region, berry farms and groundwater usage are causing a conflict with the unique ecosystems in the National Park. A catchment assessment and active stakeholder engagement is needed as a first step in this region to work towards water stewardship. The catchment assessment will provide information on the catchment context, in line with the requirements of the Standard. The purpose of the assessment is to reduce the burden on agricultural sites by providing them with a common set of information which they and others can use to inform responses to their shared water challenges.