Tijmen Schults – FutureWater

To further advance our hydrological model SPHY, we are proud to announce four major milestones for the SPHY modelling community. Since SPHY is widely used by FutureWater in capacity building programs, our goal has always been to make the model and its data as accessible and user-friendly as possible.

Until now, Graphical User Interfaces (GUIs) for SPHY were only available in QGIS for version 2.0. This project has upgraded those plugins to ensure full compatibility with the latest versions of SPHY, QGIS, and Python. The updated plugins also integrate new functionalities to handle cutting-edge data sources as model inputs. With these new QGIS plugins, running SPHY no longer requires programming skills—opening the door for a much broader audience to set up, run, and analyze hydrological simulations with ease.

1. Introducing the SPHY QGIS plugin

SPHY is now directly integrated into QGIS, allowing users to set up, run, and visualize SPHY simulations through an intuitive graphical interface. This plugin streamlines workflows, improves accessibility for new users, and enhances integration with geospatial datasets. Features include

Complete SPHY workflow integrated in QGIS
Streamlined preprocessing of model inputs
Intuitive, no-code interface
Results visualized directly in QGIS
Modular setup for diverse applications
Open-source and fully reproducible

2. New SPHY website

The new SPHY website offers easier navigation, updated documentation, and a central hub for resources, downloads, and training materials. Visit www.sphymodel.com to explore a fresh, modern platform for all SPHY matters.

3. SPHY model version 3.1 released

The latest SPHY release on Github introduces new features, performance improvements, and enhanced capabilities for hydrological and cryospheric modelling. This version builds on the robust foundations of previous releases, integrating feedback from the community and advancing the model’s flexibility and accuracy. It can be downloaded completely free and is open source. New in this version are:

Added bias-correction procedure for meteorological forcing
Increased flexibility and options for defining simulation periods
Enhanced snow melt calculation

4. Updated manuals, tutorials and datasets

Manuals of the new SPHY version and QGIS plugin are now available, as well as new datasets to make your model work. For the new QGIS plugin a video tutorial was made to explain all the ins and outs of the tool.

More to come soon!

These developments mark a significant step forward in making SPHY more accessible, powerful, and user-friendly for researchers, practitioners, and decision-makers worldwide. Soon we will organize a webinar to explain all the new features and later this year we plan on hosting a user day to discuss future model developments with the SPHY community.

Video

FutureWater, in collaboration with Utrecht University, has published Guidelines for Glacio-hydrological Modelling in High Mountain Asia. The guidelines report provides a structured approach for developing glacio-hydrological models in data-scarce mountain environments, building on both practical experience and scientific advances.

High Mountain Asia holds the world’s largest ice and snow reserves outside the polar regions and plays an important role as a water source for Asia’s major river systems, sustaining over a billion people. With changing glaciers and snow cover under global warming, water availability is shifting across seasons and risks of floods and droughts are intensifying. Understanding and modelling these dynamics is essential for managing future water resources. Focused on the Spatial Processes in Hydrology (SPHY) model, the guidelines presents best practices for model setup, calibration, and validation, offering stepwise procedures to support climate impact assessments and strengthen water resources management in glacier- and snow-dominated basins.

The guidelines were prepared as part of the project Development of a Glacio-Hydrological Model and Integrated Water Resources Management Plan for the Uttarakhand Subbasin, commissioned by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) under the Strengthening Climate Change Adaptation in Himalayas (SCA-Himalayas) program. Implemented between 2021 and 2023 by a consortium of FutureWater, Utrecht University, the University of Geneva, and the Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) in India. The project used the Bhagirathi Basin in northern India as a case study to illustrate the modelling approach.

On June 25, we celebrated the successful closure of the RoSPro project with a national workshop held in Nepal. The event brought together key stakeholders to reflect on the project’s positive outcomes, including improved spring water access, road resilience, and community engagement in water management.

A key highlight of the project was the Decision Support System (DSS) developed by FutureWater. This system integrated hydrological (as an outcome of the SPHY hydrological model), geospatial, and socioeconomic data into a user-friendly platform, enabling data-driven decisions for sustainable water management. Moreover, the system provides a simple Cost&Benefit Calculator to assist stakeholders in evaluating the potential of proposed management measures for mountain springs.

The workshop underscored the potential for scaling up the approach in other regions, using the DSS to guide future spring protection and water resource management efforts. We look forward to continue this work in the future!

An open access version of the DSS is available here

FutureWater has launched WE-HARP, a new tool to support water permitting decisions in Mozambique. Developed under the Blue Deal program, the tool was introduced during a training with ARA-Sul and is designed to make the licensing procedure more data-driven.

In June 2025, Tijmen Schults visited ARA-Sul to support the development and roll-out of the tool. The initiative is part of the Blue Deal Mozambique program, which focuses on improving integrated water management across the region. The WE-HARP (WEAP-based Hydrological Assessment of water Resource Permitting) tool is Excel-based and offers a practical solution for evaluating permit requests. It was first set up and tested in the Umbeluzi River Basin, where it was linked to an existing water allocation model and the water user database, SIRHAS. The Umbeluzi River Basin is a transboundary basin that plays a critical role in agriculture and in supplying water to the Maputo Metropolitan Area.

A 2.5-day training was delivered to water professionals and technicians from ARA-Sul, the regional water authority of southern Mozambique. Participants were introduced to the tool and learned how to assess permit applications using hydrological indicators. The tool aims to support licensing decisions and reduce pressure on key water resources, such as the Pequenos Libombos Reservoir.

The European Geoscience Union (EGU) General Assembly, held from April 28th to May 4th, 2025, at the Austria Centre Vienna, brought together scientists and researchers from around the globe. FutureWater was proud to be a part of this event, presenting its latest work under the SOS-water EU Horizon project, which aims to define the Safe Operating Space of water for European basins.

On Wednesday, April 30th, Tijmen Schults presented a breakthrough in snow water equivalent (SWE) downscaling. SWE, a critical parameter for hydrological modeling, measures the amount of meltable water in a snowpack. Tijmen introduced a new model that uses the machine learning algorithm XGBoost to downscale ERA5-Land SWE data to a higher resolution, significantly enhancing its accuracy.

Schults’ presentation, part of session HS2.1.1 – Snow and Glacier Hydrology, outlined the model’s setup and demonstrated its impressive performance. The presentation captured the attention of many researchers, sparking interest and discussions across the conference.

In early March 2025, the second phase of Water Accounting training under FAO’s Water Scarcity Program was held. The training focused on collecting and analyzing spatial data to build and simulate a water account. Participants from various governmental institutions worked with open-source datasets to compute seasonal water balances and assessed water availability and interventions in the Xe Champhone pilot basin.

A key component of the training was the use of Google Earth Engine (GEE), where participants learned how to extract and process remotely sensed precipitation, evapotranspiration, and land use data. These datasets were used to calculate the water accounting components, including inflows, outflows, demands, and unmet demands. In the program’s second half, participants were introduced to the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model, which simulates water balance and supply-demand dynamics in river basins and irrigation systems. Using a tutorial model for the Xe Champhone River Basin in Savannakhet Province, participants explored how to build and adjust scenarios to assess the potential impacts of future projections and policy or management interventions on water availability, demands, and supply. These exercises support participants in making informed, data-driven decisions.

Participants were strongly motivated to apply water accounting in their daily work, and many expressed interest in institutional follow-up. While the training exercises focused on the Xe Champhone basin, participants recognized the potential for applying water accounting approaches more broadly. This momentum can serve as a foundation for scaling up water efforts across the Lao PDR.

We are refining the tool WE-HARP: WEAP-based Hydrological Assessment for water Resource Permitting, which connects the permitting database with an interface for the assessment of new surface water licenses.

To ensure effective implementation of the new tool, FutureWater will maintain continuous engagement with ARA-Sul, providing technical support and collecting feedback through online sessions. This collaboration will help address challenges in system integration, troubleshoot issues, and refine functionalities. A significant component of this phase is the development of a comprehensive user manual and training materials, including PowerPoint slide decks, to guide ARA-Sul staff in effectively utilizing the tool for water licensing assessments. By embedding the tool within ARA-Sul’s operations, FutureWater aims to enhance decision-making capabilities and streamline the management of water resources in the region.

A consortium of international development finance institutions led by World bank and including Asian Development Bank (ADB) have signaled their intention to support the financing of the project. The climate risk management approach of the ADB aims to reduce risks resulting from climate change to investment projects by identifying climate change risks to project performance in the early stages of project development and incorporating adaptation measures in the design.

For this project FutureWater undertakes work to analyze climate change risk faced by Rogun HPP and the interaction between climate change, climate-responsive HPP operation, and downstream water resource demand as a 2nd phase following initial due diligence of ADB on available project documentation. The detailed tasks entail:

Analyze downscaled CMIP6 General Circulation Model (GCM) to understand projected changes in precipitation and heat trends across climate change scenarios in the Rogun dam catchment area. This includes assessment of indicators for likelihood of heatwave and extreme precipitation events.
Undertake an estimate of the Probable Maximum Flood level in the Rogun dam catchment through event-based simulation modelling factoring in changes to projections for extreme precipitation events and changing hydrological processes due to climate change.
Estimate the likelihood of annual discharge change based on climate change projections to understand the likelihood of Rogun HPP project economics being negatively affected by declining capacity factor driven by climate change impacts on hydrology.
Conduct a first order analysis of present and future glacial lake outburst flood risk based on review of studies from reputable sources.

With the results of this analysis, ADB can update earlier climate risk studies and guide investment decisions.

Last two weeks, the GLOW project held a roadshow through Mozambique, Eswatini, and South Africa presenting the innovative water management solution GLOW to local stakeholders. By combining weather forecasts, hydrological, and water resource modelling, together with visualisation tools, the GLOW service addresses transboundary water challenges, enhances water security, and provides actionable water management advice in the transboundary Maputo and Umbuluzi River Basins.

The GLOW team, composed of FutureWater, Hydrologic, and Emanti Management, recently completed a roadshow to present the progress and advancements of the ‘GLObal Water Availability Forecasting Service to Support Water Security’ (GLOW) project. The roadshow demonstrated how GLOW integrates weather forecasts, hydrological, and water resource modelling, together with visualisation tools to address the challenges of water availability and demand in the transboundary Maputo and Umbuluzi River Basins. Piloted with the support of the Partners for Water programme of RVO and Blue Deal Mozambique, the project focuses on scalable solutions that strengthen regional water security and governance.

GLOW addresses challenges in transboundary water resources management, which are increasingly complicated by climate change-driven droughts, flooding, and rising water demands. By integrating hydrological models such as PCR-GLOBWB and the water allocation model WEAP with meteorological forecasts, GLOW delivers accurate forecasts of water availability and demand. These forecasts, ranging from short-term (10 days) to seasonal (6 months), provide stakeholders, including water managers, dam operators, and decision-makers, with early warnings for droughts, floods, and actionable water allocation advisories. Delivered through the HydroNET platform, GLOW’s forecasts are easily accessible via user-friendly dashboards and reporting tools, helping support both operational and strategic water management across the region. The pilot demonstrates GLOW’s potential to improve water management by simulating a variety of user-defined management scenarios, highlighting the system’s role in supporting transboundary water governance and achieving SDGs 2, 6, and 13.

From the inception of the project, GLOW has been developed with involvement from the stakeholders in the Maputo and Umbuluzi River Basins, including the Joint River Basin Authorities (JRBA) of Eswatini, Mozambique’s Regional Administration of Waters in the South (ARA-Sul), National Directorate of Water Resources Management (DNGRH) and South Africa’s Inkomati-Usuthu (IUCMA) and Pongola-Umzimkhulu (PUCMA) Catchment Management Agencies. Through user requirements sessions, the varying needs of these authorities were mapped to ensure that GLOW is tailored to their specific challenges. The recent roadshow served as a platform to present the project’s progress, share key findings, and engage in open discussions about further enhancements. This ongoing dialogue is crucial for ensuring its alignment with the needs of water authorities and maximizing its impact in addressing real-world water security challenges.

Graphical User Interfaces are available for QGIS but only for SPHY v2.0 at the moment. This project will upgrade these plugins in order to make them compatible with the latest versions of SPHY (v3.0 and v3.1), QGIS and Python available. The updated plugins will also incorporate the additional functionalities to process state of the art new data sources as inputs.

As SPHY is used by FutureWater in several capacity building programs, our aim is to make the access to the data and the model as easy and intuitive as possible. With updated QGIS Plugins, no programming skills will be required to run the model, so a broader audience can use SPHY for their own purposes.

More information can be found at the SPHY website.