Within 3POLE4FOOD, FutureWater contributes to the assessment of long-term climate change impacts on water availability and crop production in major Asian river basins. The project combines  mountain hydrology modelling with downstream hydrology and crop production modelling to better understand how changes in snow, glacier melt, rainfall and temperature affect irrigation water supply and agricultural production.

FutureWater leads key technical activities related to climate forcing, bias-correction of meteorological dataset and the generation of climate change scenarios. Together with Hydrominds and Wageningen University we perform glacio-hydrological modelling and the analysis of upstream–downstream water linkages. Using the SPHY model, historical and future streamflow from mountain areas, including the contributions from rainfall, snowmelt and glacier melt are simulated. These outputs are coupled with the LPJmL model to assess downstream water availability, irrigation demand, crop yields and crop water productivity under future climate and socio-economic scenarios.

The project provides a scientific basis for identifying at-risk areas and understanding where agricultural systems may become more vulnerable to changes in mountain water supply. By linking climate, hydrology and food production, 3POLE4FOOD supports evidence-based planning for resilient river basins and sustainable food systems in Asia.

River basins originating in High Mountain Asia included in the 3POLE4FOOD project. The white polygon indicates the high mountain parts.

FutureWater had previously tailored the REWEFe toolkit to the regional WEFE Nexus context and demonstrated its application for selected river basins. Building on this work, the April 2026 training aimed to strengthen regional capacity for using REWEFe as a decision-support instrument within basin planning and governance processes. Participants included representatives from national and local governments, IRBM Learning Centers, partner universities, and national coordinators from the participating ASEAN Member States.

The training combined technical and governance-oriented learning. FutureWater introduced the structure, data requirements, scenario setup, and interpretation of the REWEFe toolkit, while guiding participants through hands-on exercises to analyse baseline conditions, develop scenarios, and interpret WEFE-related synergies and trade-offs. The sessions placed strong emphasis on translating policy plans and sector strategies into structured quantitative scenarios, enabling participants to better connect analytical outputs with planning, investment, and policy dialogue.

The governance component was delivered in collaboration with Dipankar Aich, who contributed expertise on IRBM governance, WEFE Nexus thinking, cross-sector coordination, and the science–policy interface. His sessions supported participants in understanding how REWEFe outputs can be positioned within governance processes, policy dialogues, and decision-making cycles.

Through this assignment, FutureWater contributed to strengthening the practical uptake of REWEFe in Southeast Asia by linking technical modelling, scenario analysis, and governance processes. The training supported participants in using the toolkit not only as an analytical model, but also as a structured approach for dialogue on water, energy, food, and ecosystem trade-offs in river basin planning.

ADB is committed to supporting its developing member countries in scaling up climate action. As part of this commitment, ADB is implementing TA 10098-REG: Bridging the Gap between Climate Adaptation Planning and Financing, also known as the Climate Adaptation Investment Planning (CAIP) TA. The CAIP TA aims to enhance the capacity of developing member countries (DMCs), to identify climate adaptation investment priorities to catalyze financing for adaptation and resilience. The TA delivers three outputs: (i) climate adaptation investment plans developed; (ii) appraisal of climate adaptation projects improved; and (iii) regional knowledge on climate adaptation investment planning strengthened.

The CAIP TA applies a five-step process for climate adaptation investment planning: (i) reviewing country and sector context, including national development plans and strategies, climate policies including the National Adaptation Plan (NAP), Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), or equivalent adaptation plans; (ii) undertaking more granular climate diagnostic for selected national adaptation priorities; (iii) prioritizing adaptation investments; (iv) linking with public financial management systems; and (v) identifying appropriate financing opportunities.  The CAIP TA brings together different relevant ministries, especially the finance and planning ministry, the respective sector ministry, and the environment ministry. In addition, the implementation process closely collaborates with relevant development partners active in the adaptation space in the country, the private sector, and civil society organizations.

FutureWater was engaged by ADB to develop the climate adaptation investment plans and underlying Climate Risk and Adaptation assessments (CRAs) for selected river basins in Lao PDR and Timor-Leste. Both the CRAs and the investment plans are approached from a multi-sector perspective and strongly adhere to IWRM principles. Water resources modelling (WEAP) is employed to relate water supply and demands in an integrated framework under different scenarios, in addition to extensive mapping of climate hazards, exposure and vulnerability across the study areas, making use of a combination of state-of-the-art global data and tools and locally-sourced information. The investment plans involve mapping and assessment of current and planned investments within the river basins, including nature-based solutions and green-gray infrastructure, followed by an identification of adaptation opportunities and subsequent prioritization. The results of the CAIP process for Lao PDR and Timor-Leste are expected to support the country’s national adaptation priorities into concrete, investment-ready plans and securing the necessary funding for their implementation.

The GEF / UNDP / ASEAN Project on Reducing Pollution and Preserving Environmental Flows in the East Asian Seas through the Implementation of Integrated River Basin Management (IRBM) in the ASEAN Countries is a 5-year project (2023-2027) with the goal of establishing functional IRBM mechanisms in seven priority river basins / sub-basins / watersheds in six ASEAN Member States, to reduce pollution, sustain freshwater environmental flows and adapt to climate change vulnerabilities. The Project is designed to improve governance and management arrangements in IRBM and accelerate the required changes in the six AMS in support of national priorities, objectives and commitments to global sustainable development targets using the Source to Sea (S2S) framework. The PEMSEA Resource Facility (PRF), which serves as the Project Implementing Partner, hosts the Regional Project Management Unit (RPMU). It works in collaboration with National and Local Government Partners and River Basin Organizations.

Component 1 of the Project focuses on the conduct of a baseline assessment of the S2S management continuum with a targeted outcome of improving understanding of governance, socioeconomic, ecological conditions, gaps and needs of priority river basins / sub-basins and coastal areas. This will be achieved through the establishment of the State of River Basin (SORB) reporting system to consolidate information coming from administrative, social, economic and environmental sectors. As an input to the SORB baseline reporting, it is required to complete a comprehensive assessment of competing uses and users of water as a consequence of existing and future water uses and their implications on the water / energy / food / ecosystem (WEFE) security nexus in the priority river basins.

FutureWater is providing this assessment of the WEFE security nexus through review of existing knowledge and literature, stakeholder consultations, as well as tailoring and applying its REWEFe toolkit for nexus analysis to seven river basins in six countries of Southeast Asia: Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Philippines and Viet Nam.

Urban flood management in Laos is typically based on a limited, hard infrastructure approach. With the aim to shift this paradigm towards an integrated approach that enhances climate resilience, the project “Building resilience of urban populations with ecosystem-based solutions in Lao PDR” was approved by the Green Climate Fund Board in November 2019 with a GCF grant of US$10 million. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) serves as the Accredited Entity for the project. Activities are executed by the State of Lao PDR through the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) as well as UNEP. The project is implemented across five years (2020-2025) covering four provincial capitals in the country: Vientiane, Paksan, Savannakhet, and Pakse.

One component of the project involves technical and institutional capacity building to plan, design, implement and maintain integrated urban Ecosystems-based Adaptation (EbA) interventions for the reduction of climate change induced flooding. As a part of Integrated Climate-resilient Flood Management Strategy (ICFMS) development, the project conducts hydrological, hydraulic and climate risk assessments to inform climate change adaptation solutions for risk reduction in Vientiane, Paksan, Savannakhet and Pakse.

A consortium of FutureWater, Mekong Modelling Associates (MMA) and Lao Consulting Group (LCG) was contracted by MONRE to implement the related activities. FutureWater leads and coordinates this assignment and contributes remote sensing analyses with state-of-the-art innovative tools, climate risk assessments, and training activities. To ensure sustainability and effective technology transfer, the modelling and mapping infrastructure and trained staff will be hosted within MONRE and a knowledge hub that is established within the National University of Laos.

 

The MRC’s State of the Basin Report (SOBR) is a flagship product of the organization and an integral part of the MRC’s strategic planning cycle. Compiled about every five years based on the available data and information, the report assesses conditions and trends within the basin and the impacts that development and use of water and related natural resources are having. The SOBR provides a statement of past trends and current conditions, and seeks to highlight and provide guidance to Member Countries on significant transboundary issues that require cooperation among basin countries to address. The SOBR 2023 is structured around the Mekong River Basin Indicator Framework, consisting of 5 dimensions: Environment, Social, Economic, Climate Change, and Cooperation.

As a longstanding collaborator of MRCS, FutureWater was engaged to support the development of the Economic and Climate Change chapters of the SOBR 2023 and perform the related activities of data analyses, advisory on data gaps and SOBR content, attractive presentation of key results, and communication with Member Countries and specialized MRCS staff to address their comments and suggestions.

 

The Mekong State Of the Basin Report (SOBR) is published by the Mekong River Commission (MRC) every five years, in advance of the cyclic updating of the Basin Development Strategy. The SOBR plays a key role in improving monitoring and communication of conditions in the Mekong Basin, and is MRC’s flagship knowledge and impact monitoring product. It provides information on the status and trends of water and related resources in the Mekong Basin. The 2023 SOBR is based on the MRC Indicator Framework of strategic and assessment indicators and supporting monitoring parameters, which facilitates tracking and analysis of economic, social, environmental, climate change and cooperation trends in the basin.

FutureWater was hired by MRC to perform the following tasks in support of the 2023 SOBR development:

  1. Data collection on the Extent of Salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta and the conditions of the Mekong River’s riverine, estuarine, and coastal habitats
  2. Analyses of the extents of 2010, 2015, and 2020 LMB wetlands
  3. Analyses of the extents of key fisheries habitat areas in the LMB, and
  4. Data collection for all Assessment Indicators of MRB-IF for the Upper Mekong River Basin (UMB), including reporting and extracting key messages

Implementation of tasks 1 – 3 is achieved by using state-of-the-art remote sensing tools, such as the Google Earth Engine, building on the methods developed in the preceding project.

Task 4 builds on the findings of FutureWater’s contribution to the 2018 SOBR regarding the status of the UMB in China and Myanmar, more details can be found here.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is currently developing and testing a new generation climate and disaster risk screening and assessment tool for their investment projects. This builds on a decade of experience in enhancing the climate and disaster resilience of ADB investments and incorporates feedback from a wide range of ADB staff, consultants, and external experts.

The tool is designed to deliver scientifically robust and context-specific risk screening for climate, climate change, and geophysical hazards at the project concept and preparation stage. It aims to support the design of effective adaptation and resilience strategies by offering improved access to underlying data, enhanced flexibility for exploring specific risks, and the ability to handle complex spatial project configurations such as power grids and agricultural projects. A semi-automated module now under testing also supports the generation of light-touch Climate Risk and Adaptation (CRA) assessments. Other modules included will address Paris Agreement alignment,  and enable automated input into relevant sections of the adaptation (BB2) assessment.

FutureWater contributes technical expertise on climate and hazard data, climate projections, and risk assessment methodologies, as well as capacity building. The tool’s development is guided by an iterative, consultative process involving ADB staff, external experts, and software developers. The methodology integrates hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and user-defined data for risk calculation. The tool is being tested in pilot applications in Laos and Uzbekistan, amongst others, to ensure alignment with national contexts and data availability. FutureWater plays a key role in piloting the methodology and developing example risk screening and CRA reports to validate and refine the tool’s functionalities.

The MRCS regularly undertakes periodic regional and basin-wide studies on behalf of Member Countries to assess potential effects of increasing development, growing population and uncertainty in climate variability in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). Recent basin-wide assessment and reporting were found to be hampered by data limitations across a range of areas. With the basin undergoing rapid and extensive change, tracking changes in conditions, analyzing the potential implications, and working cooperatively to leverage the benefits and avoid the problems are seen as critical to achieving the objectives of the 1995 Mekong Agreement.

To provide a greater strategic direction to the monitoring and assessment effort, the Mekong River Basin Indicator Framework (MRB-IF) was developed and approved aiming at providing a consistent and streamlined approach to data collection, analysis, and reporting. Through the MRB-IF, the MRC Member Countries and stakeholders can be alerted to the key issues and trends across five core dimensions (environment, social, economic, climate change and cooperation). Included in the MRB-IF are (i) the extent of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta (MD) – Assessment Indicator 14 and (ii) the condition of riverine, estuarine, and coastal habitats – Assessment Indicator 16. A systematic process of collection and analysis of the data for status and trends evaluation regarding these indicators is currently missing.

The aim of this project is therefore to develop a basin-specific systematic approach to periodically assess the extent of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta and the conditions of the riverine, estuarine, and coastal habitats across the LMB. Methodologies to evaluate both indicators are developed relying on integration of satellite remote sensing data, GIS databases, and station data. The project involves an elaborate review of existing methodologies tested in the LMB and other river basins, an assessment of these methods regarding technical, economic and institutional aspects, and the development of a recommended methodology for adoption by MRCS, including guidance documentation for its stepwise implementation.