Yemen – FutureWater

Yemen is one of the most water-scarce and food-insecure countries in the world, where decades of over-abstraction, fragile institutions, and a changing climate have pushed many river basins beyond sustainable limits. With limited resources and competing needs across domestic supply, agriculture and industry, the Government of Yemen and the World Bank need a transparent, evidence-based way to decide where to invest first. In a data-scarce, conflict-affected setting, no single dataset offers a basin-by-basin picture of water availability, demand and climate risk.

This assignment supports the Government of Yemen and the World Bank in identifying and ranking the country’s 42 water basins and sub-basins for future investment. Delivered by Acacia Water and FutureWater as partners, the work integrates socio-economic, hydrological and remote-sensing data; delineates and characterises the basins; assesses water availability and water balances; analyses climate vulnerability; and brings everything together in a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework, with GIS outputs, maps and investment recommendations. Crucially, this data-driven analysis is complemented by stakeholder meetings that capture local and strategic priorities known to policymakers but not visible in the available datasets, ensuring the prioritisation reflects realities on the ground.

FutureWater leads the water demand analysis and climate change impact assessment. We estimate seasonal and annual demand for each basin across the domestic, agricultural and industrial sectors, combining population and per-capita use with irrigated-area and crop water requirements, and develop future demand scenarios. In parallel, we screen each basin for climate risk using the IPCC hazard, exposure and vulnerability framework, drawing on World Bank climate projections for a historical baseline and a 2050 horizon.

These results, together with the insights from stakeholder engagement, feed directly into the basin prioritisation. The outcome gives Yemeni water-sector counterparts and the World Bank a shared basis for ranking basins, defending investment choices.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is considered the most water-scarce region of the world. Disputes over water lead to tension within communities, and unreliable water services are prompting people to migrate in search of better opportunities. Water investments absorb large amounts of public funds, which could often be used more efficiently elsewhere. As the region’s population continues to grow, per capita water availability is set to fall by 50 percent by 2050, and, if climate change affects weather and precipitation patterns as predicted, the MENA region may see more frequent and severe droughts and floods

Map of yearly average precipitation in the MENA region (mm).

The need for alternative and improved water management options is therefore urgently needed, but a clear overview on what the main focus should be is lacking. A broad range of options exists which can be grouped by different approaches such as reducing the demand, increasing the supply, transfer between different sectors, transfer within different sectors, increase storage etc. An important aspect for the MENA region includes desalination.

To explore different options the World Bank initiated an initiative to generate an improved understanding of water issues in the region and overview of available options under different scenarios of water supply and demand management with special focus on desalination, taking into account the energy nexus and environmental concerns. As part of this initiative, FutureWater will carry out an assessment of water stress in the MENA region, including associated marginal cost of water supply to meet the water supply need. Conducting consultation workshops and meetings will be organized with relevant parties in the region (governmental, universities, civil society groups).