The project aims to strengthen the climate and ecosystem resilience of the semi-natural walnut-fruit forests of the Arslanbob region in the Kyrgyz Republic; thereby addressing severe forest degradation, supporting sustainable forest-pasture management, and safeguarding the livelihoods of dependent rural communities. In collaboration with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and under the "Conservation and Afforestation for Resilient Ecosystem (CARE)" project, FutureWater conducted a comprehensive Climate Risk and Adaptation (CRA) assessment to evaluate the vulnerability of this unique forest system to a changing climate. The assessment characterizes historic and future climate conditions, identifies the key hazards facing the landscape, and recommends adaptation measures to reduce exposure and vulnerability while quantifying the greenhouse gas mitigation potential of the proposed interventions.
Home to the world’s largest semi-natural walnut-fruit forest, the Arslanbob region in Jalal-Abad province has lost roughly half of its forest cover between 1990 and 2018, with forest extent declining from over 100,000 hectares to around 45,000 hectares. Unsustainable pasture use, overgrazing, forest encroachment, and weak enforcement of land-use regulations have constrained natural regeneration. At the same time, climate change is intensifying ecological stress: temperatures in the Kyrgyz Republic have risen by 1.3°C over the past four decades and are projected to climb further, bringing late frosts that affect walnut yields, drying springs, declining snowpack and groundwater recharge, more frequent pest outbreaks and wildfires, and heightened landslide and erosion hazards. Beyond their economic value, these forests regulate water flows to the downstream Ferghana valley, stabilize slopes, and reduce the risk of floods, landslides, and mudflows.
With support from ADB, the CARE project promotes Nature-based Solutions including reforestation, sustainable pasture management, adaptive agroforestry, and integrated forest-pasture governance, supported by digital monitoring and community engagement. To ensure these interventions are designed to withstand future climate conditions, FutureWater conducted a detailed climate risk and adaptation assessment which included:
- An analysis of historic climate and CMIP6-based future climate projections for Jalal-Abad province, including trends in temperature, precipitation, seasonality, and climate extremes under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5
- A climate risk assessment combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability information to evaluate the project’s risk from floods, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, landslides, and mudflows
- A set of targeted adaptation options, such as diversification of species composition, climate-informed regeneration zoning, soil organic carbon enhancement, water harvesting, and dynamic grazing plans
- An estimate of the greenhouse gas mitigation potential of forest regeneration and improved pastureland management.
