Uzbekistan's planned public investments are exposed to floods, landslides, drought and extreme heat, and the country was chosen as one of two pilots for the climate and disaster risk screening approach that the Asian Development Bank (ADB) is preparing for its member countries. Working for ADB and Uzbekistan's Ministry of Economy and Finance, FutureWater applied a rapid risk screening checklist, supported by hazard datasets, a spatial database and climate projections, to 14 planned investment projects in the transport, water and agriculture sectors. The screening combined hazard, exposure and vulnerability ratings and set out resilience options, so that climate and disaster risk can be weighed early in public investment decisions.
Uzbekistan is exposed to landslides, river floods, drought, heat waves and wildfire, and climate change is altering the frequency and intensity of several of these hazards. Public investment projects are appraised by the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MoEF), which aims to make more systematic use of disaster and climate information in planning and budgeting.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) was developing an in-house system for climate and disaster risk screening of projects, and selected Uzbekistan as one of two pilot countries ahead of its rollout. FutureWater demonstrated a rapid screening checklist that a ministry can apply on its own, together with the hazard datasets and the spatial database behind it. ADB and and the Uzbek governement jointly selected 14 planned investment projects across the transport, water and agriculture sectors and across several regions of the country.
Risk was treated as a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Baseline hazard ratings were derived from global probabilistic and deterministic hazard datasets, and were adjusted towards the future using anomalies in climate indices. Exposure was established by overlaying project locations on hazard maps, and vulnerability was rated per sector using published fragility information, ADB sector guidance and expert judgement.
Each screening was documented in a standard checklist, accompanied by hazard maps and resilience options drawn from ADB’s adaptation options database and from engineering literature. The checklist, the underlying hazard datasets and guidance on climate responsive public investment management were prepared for routine use by MoEF in appraising its investment pipeline.
