For the Asian Development Bank, FutureWater assesses how climate change will affect Armenia's existing and planned reservoirs across the country's six primary river basins. Using the SPHY hydrological model with ERA5 and NASA-NEX climate projections, the assessment examines water availability, seasonality, and the shift to earlier snowmelt that reduces late-summer baseflow. A central deliverable is a prioritisation of reservoirs — ranking dams by climate vulnerability, refill reliability, and adaptation potential — to guide where ADB and the Government of Armenia should focus investment under the Glacier to Farms programme. The work is delivered in consultation with Armenia's Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure, and Ministry of Economy.

Armenia is a landlocked country in the Southern Caucasus with a dry climate, where the highest precipitation falls in the mountains. Its surface and groundwater resources — around 9 bcm of usable water annually — support hydropower (over 30% of the national energy mix), irrigation (80% of crops), and drinking water supply, with reservoir storage playing a central role in balancing demand across seasons. Yet warming is shifting snowmelt earlier in the year, and river flows are projected to decline by roughly 14% by 2040 and up to 39% by the end of the century. This places Armenia’s 87 existing dams, and a pipeline of planned reservoirs, under increasing pressure.

For the Asian Development Bank (ADB), FutureWater conducts a climate risk assessment of water resources availability in Armenia’s six primary river basins, with a focus on existing and planned reservoirs. The assessment combines the SPHY hydrological model with downscaled climate projections from ERA5 and NASA-NEX. The specific activities include:

  • Collecting DEM, soil, land use, and historical and future climate data for the six primary river basins.
  • Assessing water resources availability and inter-annual and seasonal variability using a hydrological model, including inflows to a selected set of key reservoirs.
  • Assessing climate change impacts on water resources, including changes in snowmelt contributions.
  • Calculating impact indicators for the basins and reservoirs — potential refill frequency, and high- and low-flow indicators.
  • Prioritising existing and planned reservoirs by climate risk and adaptation potential, to support ADB investment decisions and Armenia’s national water resources planning.
  • Identifying preliminary adaptation solutions in consultation with government counterparts and development partners.

A central focus is seasonality. Reservoir operation depends not only on annual water volumes but on when water arrives, and the shift to earlier snowmelt and reduced summer baseflow has direct consequences for reservoir filling schedules, irrigation timing, and the design of new storage infrastructure. The findings — including a prioritised shortlist of reservoirs for adaptation investment — will inform ADB’s investment pipeline under the Glacier to Farms programme and Armenia’s long-term water resources planning. The work is delivered in close consultation with Armenia’s Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure, and Ministry of Economy.