Project:IMPREX: IMproving PRedictions and management of hydrological EXtremes
Client:European Commision
Program:EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (H2020) – Research and Innovation Action
Partners:Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute – KNMI (Coordinator), ECMWF, SMHI, IRSTEA, PIK, ARCTIK, BSC, MetOffice, Technical University of Crete, University of Reading, HZG, Deltares, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Adelphi, HKV, CETAQUA, Universidad Politécnica de Valencia, Politecnico Milano, Cima, GFZ, BFG, Water Footprint Network
Objective:To support the reduction of the vulnerability to extreme hydrological events, and prepare for a future in which the intensity and frequency of disrupting features may be very different from today’s reality.

FutureWater leads the coordination of the “Agriculture and Drought” sectoral Work Package of IMPREX. This WP specifically aims to study and evaluate the use of IMPREX weather forecasts and predictions, climate variability, and drought indicators to assess agricultural drought risk and impacts over four case studies and at the pan-European level. Special emphasis will be placed in: (i) improving our understanding on the relationships between climate variability, hydrological drought indicators, and agricultural production and losses, (ii) developing downscaling methods in order to provide agricultural drought indicators useful at the basin level, (iii) designing appropriate tools and communication/dissemination channels for generating effective and transparent drought alerts, iv) quantifying the impact of changing rainfall, evapotranspiration and atmospheric recycling dynamics on water fluxes, flows, stocks, consumption and the provision of services to agriculture.

Imprex-tagline-cmyk
IMPREX exploits the idea that understanding present-day risks is an effective starting point for adapting to unprecedented future events. Taking into account potential climate trajectories and a collection of experiences in various vulnerable water-related sectors, IMPREX will put current management decisions and practices in the context of an emergent future. In addition, the way in which current operational forecasts of potentially high-impact events at various time scales are utilized can still be improved, not only by enhancing the forecasting skill, but also by customizing the information to the stakeholders’ needs, practice and decision context.

The core elements of IMPREX consist of three interconnected science- and user-oriented actions: (a) an improvement in the forecasting and foresighting tools and climatologies of hydrological extremes, (b) application of these developments in the daily practice of stakeholders across different sectors and regions, and (c) dissemination of the experience gained from the sectoral impact  analyses to a wider audience by means of user-friendly assessment summaries of impact and adaptation strategies, periodic risk outlooks, and bulletins for public communication.

imprex pict

IMPREX will improve predictability at short-medium and seasonal time scales (upper two block arrows), and will develop new concepts to allow translation of the experience with present day events into the future (bottom arrow).

IMPREX will deliver:

  • A measurable improvement in forecast skill of meteorological and hydrological extremes in Europe and their impacts
  • A demonstration of the value of the information on hydrological impacts to relevant stakeholders through a set of representative case studies.
  • Novel risk assessment concepts that respond to limitations of current methods and practices
  • A pan-European assessment of existing and adapted risk management and adaptation strategies
  • A periodic outlook of expected hydrological and water resources (trans-)sectoral risks in Europe linking outputs to existing systems such as the European Flood Awareness System and the European Drought Observatory.

FutureWater leads the coordination of the “Agriculture and Drought” sectoral Work Package. This WP specifically aims to study and evaluate the use of IMPREX weather forecasts and predictions, climate variability, and drought indicators to assess agricultural drought risk and impacts over four case studies and at the pan-European level. An special emphasis will be placed in:

  • improving our understanding on the relationships between climate variability, hydrological drought indicators, and agricultural production and losses and, finding these relations in four Mediterranean case basins
  • developing downscaling methods in order to provide agricultural drought indicators useful at the basin level and according to the specific needs of the case study basins and their currently operational drought management systems.
  • designing appropriate tools and communication/dissemination channels for generating effective and transparent drought alerts to water managers and stakeholders in the agricultural sector.
  • quantifying the impact of changing rainfall, evapotranspiration and atmospheric recycling dynamics on water fluxes, flows, stocks, consumption and the provision of services to agriculture for the major basins of Europe using a generic analytical framework (WA+).

Links

Publications

  • January 2016, Climate Services

    Improving predictions and management of hydrological extremes through climate services

    Van den Hurk, B.J.J.M., L.M. Bouwer, C. Buontempo, R. Döscher, E. Ercin, C. Hananel, J.E. Hunink, E. Kjellström, B. Klein, M. Manez, F. Pappenberger, L. Pouget, M.H. Ramos, P.J. Ward, A.H. Weerts, J.B. Wijngaard

    Show citationVan den Hurk, B.J.J.M., L.M. Bouwer, C. Buontempo, R. Döscher, E. Ercin, C. Hananel, J.E. Hunink, E. Kjellström, B. Klein, M. Manez, F. Pappenberger, L. Pouget, M.H. Ramos, P.J. Ward, A.H. Weerts, J.B. Wijngaard. 2016. Improving predictions and management of hydrological extremes through climate services. Climate Services 1, 6–11. doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2016.01.001XDownload PDF