Project:Climate Risk Assessment using the Decision Tree Framework
Client:World Bank
Partners:Deltares, University of Cincinnati
Objective:To quantitatively assess the climate change risks versus other identified risks of two water resource projects in Kenya (flood protection and irrigation expansion) and Nepal (run-of-river hydropower), using the novel Decision Tree Framework methodology.

The novel methodology that is piloted by the World Bank for assessing climate risks versus other risks on water resource projects, called the Decision Tree Framework (DTF), is applied to two two planned investments: (1) flood protection infrastructure and irrigated cropland expansion on the Nzoia river, Kenya; and (2) the Kabeli-A run-of-river hydroelectric project in Nepal, applying and validating of the new Hydropower Sector Climate Resilience Guidelines based on the DTF.

There is so far no accepted general methodology for assessing the significance of climate risks relative to other risks to water resources projects that the World Bank Group supports and invests in. The Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) in its 2012 report entitled “”Adapting to Climate Change: Assessing the World Bank Group Experience””, found that “climate models have been more useful for setting context than for informing investment and policy choices” and “they often have relatively low value-added for many of the applications described” and that “although hydropower has a long tradition of dealing with climate variability, the Bank Group lacks guidance on appropriate methods for incorporating climate change considerations into project design and appraisal.”

The book “”Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design: The Decision Tree Framework”” by Casey Brown and Patrick Ray was published in 2015. Since then, the Decision Tree Framework (DTF) has been applied to Bank projects facing diverse situations in six pilots covering hydropower, water supply, and irrigation with funding from the Water Partnership Program (WPP). This effort is continuing in two additional pilots with financing from the Korea Green Growth Trust Fund (KGGTF) targeting the resilience component of water security of flood protection and irrigation in the Nzoia River basin in Kenya and the application of the Hydropower Sector Climate Resilience Guidelines (which in turn are based on the DTF) to the Kabeli-A hydroelectric project in Nepal.

Together with partners, FutureWater applies the following bottom-up methodology DTF to the Nzoia irrigation project in Kenya and the Nepal’s Kabeli-A run-of-river hydroelectric project study. FutureWater´s main tasks are assessing risks using crop modeling and water allocation modeling of the Nzoia case study, and hydrological modeling of the high-mountain region in Nepal.

Publications

  • 2019 - Technical ReportVan der Vat, M.P., J.E. Hunink, D. Stuparu. 2019. Lower Nzoia Project – Final Report, Climate Change Risk Analysis for projects in Kenya and Nepal. Deltares, FutureWater and University of Cincinnati for the World Bank.X

    Climate Change Risk Analysis for Projects in Kenya and Nepal

    Van der Vat, M.P., J.E. Hunink, D. Stuparu